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The 5 Years Plan, 2011-2016 is Just a Bridge Toward a More Complex Future

China must to evolve its economic model to avoid the “middle income trap”, a condition where initial dashing success is replaced by low growth. This might become a possibility in the second half of this decade. The 12^ 5-year plan –to end in 2015 — correctly targets domestic demand, hi-tech maufacturing, overseas direct investments, RMBinternationalization. The lack of real competition from other emerging countries should keep China exempt from shocks until 2015/2016 and China will also become the worlds’s largest importer and 4th largest consumer. But there will not be time...
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India in Africa: Another Giant Steps in — Prof. Romeo Orlandi, President of Osservatorio Asia SC

India is making good business in Africa. A few years ago it would have been unthinkable. The continent and the sub-continent seemed on the way to an unfortunate destiny. Now, they cooperate actively and their economy is consistently moving towards a promising future. India is the 4th biggest trading partner of Africa, after Europe, China and the USA. Moreover, Delhi ranks number 3 in terms of investments in the continent, with interests in mining, agriculture, telecommunications and consumer goods. Trade between India and Africa is growing, mirroring different economic structures. India’s growth...
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Is the Trap Concealed?

Per capita income in China grew from 155 Usd in 1978 to 4.300 in 2011. Ironically, this unprecedented result is considered by some as a hazard more than a pride. China is now fully within the risk range of the so called “middle income trap”. It is a statistically proven danger that may occur when a country is caught between the success of the past development and the challenges of future development. The World Bank coined the expression in 2007, to symbolize the fate of some developing countries who were able to achieve remarkable results in defeating underdevelopment, but then could not...
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In Pakistan too, Radiations Know no Boundary — Prof. Romeo Orlandi, President, Osservatorio Asia SC

News from Pakistan is seldom bright. Natural disasters, war, border tensions prevail on economic growth, infrastructure construction, poverty alleviation. Even the recent death of Osama bin Laden brings back memories of a devastating past. With this lingering record, the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, just preventing fears from the international community, released a statement aimed at tranquilizing its neighboring countries: no radiation from the 2 nuclear sites of the country. The alarm came in the wake of the Japanese tsunami, which made the Fukushima plant a possible source of international...
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IMF: the Last Round for Europe

If the World Bank’s leadership is appointed by the United States, the IMF’s has be from Western Europe. Today, this non-written rule has become questionable since emerging countries have grown in terms of ownership and funding to the IMF. Emerging nations now weigh significantly in the global arena, as did their role during the recent financial crisis. The nomination of the new IMF Director from a non-European country could become a reality, but still presents a few obstacles. Beijing has not officially requested a Chinese candidate to lead the IMF, but important chinese names have recently...
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