My dear Washington DC friend, Clyde Prestowitz sent this article to me and said: “I think this article captures what is going on, Alberto, do you agree?
Yes, I agree, dear Clyde, there are 4 elements that play strongly in favor of China and 3 remedial actions I hope the US will take in due time without hesitations
1) China’s market size and attraction for commodities and low cost manufacturing imports that Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam can offer (BTW Vietnam is next in line);
2) Promised outbound Chinese investment in transportation and logistics that will contribute to an increasing efficiency and productivity growth in SEA;
3) The revenge of local Chinese diaspora that so far had to make it under the line can now come out and go for the big deals in their own country with China support;
4) The obvious temptation to maximize gains by playing contender one against the other;
5) Among all this TPP has always been a drop in the bucket, things would have happnd any way;
6) Best for US is to play cool, remove the Marines from Korea and Okinawa, Japan, withdraw the 7th fleet to the 2nd island chain in Guam and just leave the THAAD in South Korea
7) As usual the best medicine to dealing with Chinese is actually letting other countries do what they feel;
8) Inevitably many people will change their mind and we will fairly soon have a shot at re-assessing the situation while saving money as time goes by
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